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The first half of 2022 was the worst first half of the year for the S&P in more than 50 years. Considering that the beginning of the 2nd half of the year, the market has started to rebound. The S&P 500 is up 13% from its June lows, and the NASDAQ is up near 20% from its lows, and near the theoretical threshold for a new booming market.
When we see this rally, our primary question is: are we looking at a new bull market or is this a bear market rally? Simply put, have we reached the bottom yet and are on our method up, or is the market seeing a small rally before another plunge?
To address this question, let’s comprehend what is driving this rally.
Capitulated investor sentiment: The ramification is that the marketplace has reached its bottom as the cost has actually been driven down by financiers selling stocks without the hope of regaining their losses. Therefore, the market is ripe for a rally.
Q2 revenues went beyond expectations: Lots of financiers were worried that as stocks plunged, this decline would also be shown in their profits report. However, the reports were not almost as bad as many feared.
Investors are expecting an inflation decline and an end to the Fed hiking interest rates by the end of the year.
As the marketplace rallies, the US Federal Reserve is concerned that this is occurring prematurely, prior to the required financial objectives have actually been accomplished.
Is this the one?
Bear rallies occur often, and this has indeed been a big one. Compared to the three previous significant crashes in 2007, 2000, and 1973, two things stick out:.
The large number of bear rallies which generally happen prior to the one that is sustainable gets here and starts the next bull market. We are presently in the fourth rally, and some recoveries have needed 11.
The large size of this 13% rally versus the 8% average bearish market rally. History shows that we may have more false dawns ahead, and the size of this rally, however big, is not extraordinary.
Inflation should come down.
To reach the sustainable rally that will lead to the next bull market, we need to see a continual decrease in inflation. We believe we are close to this inflation peak, with product rates falling, supply chains loosening up, and the labour market beginning to deteriorate. In spite of these signals, we will need to see concrete data that inflation is boiling down, which still may not persuade the Fed that it is time to halt rates of interest hikes.
In 2020, ARKK gained around 148% after purchasing stocks such as Tesla and Square. Ark Invest now controls roughly ten different ETFs, providing exposure to various sectors of the market, with the main focus on tech.
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” After such a strong year in 2020, ARKK has felt the complete impact of the tech sell-off, falling around 12% this year.”.
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We remain positive that we might have seen the bearishness reach its bottom but at the same time cautious about the existing rally being the sustainable recovery that will lead to the next bull market. For that to occur, inflation still needs to come down.