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The first half of 2022 was the worst first half of the year for the S&P in more than 50 years. However since the start of the 2nd half of the year, the marketplace has started to rebound. The S&P 500 is up 13% from its June lows, and the NASDAQ is up near 20% from its lows, and close to the hypothetical limit for a brand-new bull market.
When we see this rally, our primary question is: are we taking a look at a brand-new bull market or is this a bear market rally? To put it simply, have we reached the bottom yet and are on our way up, or is the marketplace seeing a small rally before another plunge?
To answer this question, let’s understand what is driving this rally.
Capitulated investor sentiment: The ramification is that the marketplace has actually reached its bottom as the price has actually been driven down by investors selling stocks without the hope of regaining their losses. Hence, the market is ripe for a rally.
Q2 earnings went beyond expectations: Many financiers were fretted that as stocks dropped, this recession would likewise be shown in their earnings report. The reports were not nearly as bad as numerous feared.
Financiers are expecting an inflation decline and an end to the Fed hiking rate of interest by the end of the year.
As the market rallies, the US Federal Reserve is worried that this is happening too soon, before the needed financial objectives have actually been accomplished.
Is this the one?
Bear rallies take place often, and this has actually indeed been a big one. Compared to the 3 previous major crashes in 2007, 2000, and 1973, 2 things stick out:.
The large number of bear rallies which usually occur before the one that is sustainable shows up and starts the next booming market. We are currently in the 4th rally, and some healings have needed 11.
The plus size of this 13% rally versus the 8% typical bearish market rally. History suggests that we might have more incorrect dawns ahead, and the size of this rally, however huge, is not unprecedented.
Inflation should boil down.
To reach the sustainable rally that will cause the next bull market, we require to see a continual decrease in inflation. We believe we are close to this inflation peak, with commodity prices falling, supply chains loosening up, and the labour market starting to damage. Despite these signals, we will need to see concrete information that inflation is boiling down, which still might not persuade the Fed that it is time to halt interest rate hikes.
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We stay optimistic that we may have seen the bearish market reach its bottom however at the same time careful about the present rally being the sustainable healing that will cause the next bull market. For that to occur, inflation still needs to come down.