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The very first half of 2022 was the worst first half of the year for the S&P in more than 50 years. Because the beginning of the 2nd half of the year, the market has started to rebound. The S&P 500 is up 13% from its June lows, and the NASDAQ is up near 20% from its lows, and close to the theoretical limit for a new booming market.
When we see this rally, our main question is: are we looking at a brand-new booming market or is this a bearish market rally? To put it simply, have we reached the bottom yet and are on our way up, or is the marketplace seeing a little rally before another plunge?
To address this question, let’s understand what is driving this rally.
Capitulated investor sentiment: The ramification is that the market has reached its bottom as the rate has been driven down by financiers selling stocks without the hope of restoring their losses. Hence, the market is ripe for a rally.
Q2 incomes surpassed expectations: Numerous investors were fretted that as stocks plunged, this downturn would also be reflected in their incomes report. The reports were not almost as bad as numerous feared.
Investors are wishing for an inflation decrease and an end to the Fed treking interest rates by the end of the year.
As the market rallies, the United States Federal Reserve is concerned that this is taking place prematurely, prior to the required financial goals have been achieved.
Is this the one?
Bear rallies happen often, and this has certainly been a huge one. Compared to the three previous major crashes in 2007, 2000, and 1973, two things stick out:.
The a great deal of bear rallies which generally occur prior to the one that is sustainable gets here and begins the next bull market. We are currently in the fourth rally, and some recoveries have needed 11.
The plus size of this 13% rally versus the 8% typical bearish market rally. History shows that we might have more incorrect dawns ahead, and the size of this rally, though big, is not extraordinary.
Inflation must come down.
To reach the sustainable rally that will result in the next bull market, we need to see a sustained decrease in inflation. We believe we are close to this inflation peak, with product rates falling, supply chains loosening, and the labour market beginning to weaken. Regardless of these signals, we will need to see concrete data that inflation is coming down, which still might not encourage the Fed that it is time to stop rate of interest hikes.
The main ETF to point out here is ARKK. It sprung into the limelight in 2020, with its disruptive investments handled by Cathie Wood. In 2020, ARKK gained around 148% after buying stocks such as Tesla and Square. Ark Invest now manages roughly 10 various ETFs, providing exposure to numerous sectors of the market, with the primary focus on tech.
” ARKK (ARK Innovation ETF) is greatly weighted towards healthcare and information technology possessions. The ETF offers exposure to a range of sectors, allowing you to increase the diversity of your portfolio.
” After such a strong year in 2020, ARKK has felt the full impact of the tech sell-off, falling around 12% this year.”.
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We stay positive that we might have seen the bear market reach its bottom however at the same time cautious about the existing rally being the sustainable recovery that will cause the next bull market. For that to occur, inflation still requires to come down.