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The first half of 2022 was the worst first half of the year for the S&P in more than 50 years. However considering that the start of the second half of the year, the market has started to rebound. The S&P 500 is up 13% from its June lows, and the NASDAQ is up near 20% from its lows, and near to the hypothetical limit for a new bull market.
When we see this rally, our primary concern is: are we taking a look at a brand-new bull market or is this a bearish market rally? Simply put, have we reached the bottom yet and are on our method up, or is the marketplace seeing a little rally before another plunge?
To address this question, let’s understand what is driving this rally.
Capitulated investor belief: The implication is that the market has actually reached its bottom as the cost has been driven down by investors offering stocks without the hope of regaining their losses. Therefore, the market is ripe for a rally.
Q2 revenues exceeded expectations: Many financiers were worried that as stocks plummeted, this recession would also be reflected in their earnings report. The reports were not almost as bad as lots of feared.
Investors are hoping for an inflation decline and an end to the Fed treking rate of interest by the end of the year.
As the market rallies, the US Federal Reserve is worried that this is occurring too soon, before the necessary financial goals have actually been accomplished.
Is this the one?
Bear rallies happen typically, and this has certainly been a huge one. Compared to the 3 previous major crashes in 2007, 2000, and 1973, 2 things stand out:.
The large number of bear rallies which usually take place before the one that is sustainable shows up and starts the next bull market. We are currently in the fourth rally, and some recoveries require 11.
The plus size of this 13% rally versus the 8% average bearishness rally. History shows that we may have more false dawns ahead, and the size of this rally, though huge, is not unprecedented.
Inflation needs to come down.
To reach the sustainable rally that will result in the next booming market, we require to see a sustained decline in inflation. We believe we are close to this inflation peak, with commodity prices falling, supply chains loosening, and the labour market starting to weaken. Despite these signals, we will need to see concrete information that inflation is boiling down, which still may not encourage the Fed that it is time to stop rate of interest hikes.
The main ETF to discuss here is ARKK. It sprung into the limelight in 2020, with its disruptive investments managed by Cathie Wood. In 2020, ARKK got around 148% after buying stocks such as Tesla and Square. Ark Invest now manages around ten different ETFs, offering direct exposure to different sectors of the marketplace, with the primary focus on tech.
” ARKK (ARK Innovation ETF) is heavily weighted towards health care and information technology possessions. The ETF uses direct exposure to a variety of sectors, enabling you to increase the diversity of your portfolio.
” After such a strong year in 2020, ARKK has actually felt the full impact of the tech sell-off, falling around 12% this year.”.
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We remain optimistic that we might have seen the bearish market reach its bottom but at the same time cautious about the present rally being the sustainable healing that will cause the next bull market. For that to take place, inflation still requires to come down.