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The first half of 2022 was the worst first half of the year for the S&P in more than 50 years. Since the beginning of the second half of the year, the market has begun to rebound. The S&P 500 is up 13% from its June lows, and the NASDAQ is up near 20% from its lows, and close to the hypothetical threshold for a new booming market.
When we see this rally, our primary question is: are we looking at a new booming market or is this a bearishness rally? Simply put, have we reached the bottom yet and are on our way up, or is the marketplace seeing a small rally before another plunge?
To address this concern, let’s understand what is driving this rally.
Capitulated financier belief: The implication is that the marketplace has reached its bottom as the cost has been driven down by investors offering stocks without the hope of restoring their losses. Hence, the market is ripe for a rally.
Q2 revenues went beyond expectations: Numerous financiers were fretted that as stocks dropped, this downturn would likewise be reflected in their earnings report. The reports were not almost as bad as numerous feared.
Financiers are expecting an inflation decrease and an end to the Fed hiking rates of interest by the end of the year.
As the marketplace rallies, the US Federal Reserve is worried that this is happening prematurely, prior to the needed economic objectives have been accomplished.
Is this the one?
Bear rallies happen frequently, and this has undoubtedly been a big one. Compared to the 3 previous significant crashes in 2007, 2000, and 1973, 2 things stand out:.
The large number of bear rallies which usually take place prior to the one that is sustainable arrives and begins the next bull market. We are currently in the 4th rally, and some recoveries require 11.
The plus size of this 13% rally versus the 8% typical bearishness rally. History suggests that we might have more false dawns ahead, and the size of this rally, however big, is not unmatched.
Inflation must come down.
To reach the sustainable rally that will result in the next booming market, we require to see a sustained decrease in inflation. We believe we are close to this inflation peak, with commodity rates falling, supply chains loosening, and the labour market starting to deteriorate. Despite these signals, we will need to see concrete information that inflation is coming down, which still might not convince the Fed that it is time to halt rate of interest walkings.
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We stay optimistic that we might have seen the bear market reach its bottom but at the same time cautious about the existing rally being the sustainable recovery that will cause the next booming market. For that to occur, inflation still requires to come down.