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The first half of 2022 was the worst first half of the year for the S&P in more than 50 years. But because the beginning of the second half of the year, the market has started to rebound. The S&P 500 is up 13% from its June lows, and the NASDAQ is up near 20% from its lows, and near the theoretical limit for a new booming market.
When we see this rally, our main question is: are we looking at a brand-new bull market or is this a bearishness rally? To put it simply, have we reached the bottom yet and are on our way up, or is the market seeing a small rally prior to another plunge?
To address this question, let’s comprehend what is driving this rally.
Capitulated investor sentiment: The implication is that the marketplace has reached its bottom as the price has actually been driven down by investors selling stocks without the hope of restoring their losses. Thus, the market is ripe for a rally.
Q2 profits surpassed expectations: Numerous investors were fretted that as stocks plummeted, this decline would likewise be reflected in their incomes report. The reports were not almost as bad as lots of feared.
Financiers are hoping for an inflation decline and an end to the Fed hiking rate of interest by the end of the year.
As the marketplace rallies, the United States Federal Reserve is concerned that this is taking place prematurely, before the needed economic goals have been attained.
Is this the one?
Bear rallies occur frequently, and this has indeed been a big one. Compared to the 3 previous significant crashes in 2007, 2000, and 1973, 2 things stand out:.
The large number of bear rallies which typically take place before the one that is sustainable shows up and starts the next booming market. We are presently in the fourth rally, and some recoveries require 11.
The large size of this 13% rally versus the 8% average bearishness rally. History suggests that we might have more incorrect dawns ahead, and the size of this rally, though huge, is not extraordinary.
Inflation needs to come down.
To reach the sustainable rally that will lead to the next booming market, we need to see a continual decline in inflation. Our company believe we are close to this inflation peak, with commodity costs falling, supply chains loosening, and the labour market beginning to compromise. In spite of these signals, we will need to see concrete information that inflation is coming down, which still might not persuade the Fed that it is time to halt rates of interest hikes.
In 2020, ARKK acquired around 148% after purchasing stocks such as Tesla and Square. Ark Invest now manages around 10 various ETFs, providing exposure to various sectors of the market, with the main focus on tech.
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” After such a strong year in 2020, ARKK has actually felt the complete impact of the tech sell-off, falling around 12% this year.”.
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We stay optimistic that we may have seen the bear market reach its bottom but at the same time cautious about the current rally being the sustainable recovery that will lead to the next bull market. For that to occur, inflation still needs to come down.