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The first half of 2022 was the worst first half of the year for the S&P in more than 50 years. Given that the start of the 2nd half of the year, the market has started to rebound. The S&P 500 is up 13% from its June lows, and the NASDAQ is up near 20% from its lows, and near to the hypothetical limit for a new bull market.
When we see this rally, our main question is: are we looking at a new booming market or is this a bearishness rally? To put it simply, have we reached the bottom yet and are on our way up, or is the market seeing a little rally prior to another plunge?
To address this question, let’s understand what is driving this rally.
Capitulated investor sentiment: The implication is that the marketplace has reached its bottom as the price has actually been driven down by investors selling stocks without the hope of regaining their losses. Hence, the marketplace is ripe for a rally.
Q2 profits exceeded expectations: Numerous investors were fretted that as stocks plunged, this recession would likewise be reflected in their incomes report. The reports were not nearly as bad as many feared.
Financiers are hoping for an inflation decrease and an end to the Fed hiking rate of interest by the end of the year.
As the market rallies, the United States Federal Reserve is worried that this is happening prematurely, before the needed financial goals have actually been attained.
Is this the one?
Bear rallies happen often, and this has indeed been a big one. Compared to the 3 previous major crashes in 2007, 2000, and 1973, 2 things stand out:.
The large number of bear rallies which generally take place before the one that is sustainable arrives and starts the next bull market. We are presently in the fourth rally, and some healings require 11.
The large size of this 13% rally versus the 8% average bearish market rally. History shows that we may have more incorrect dawns ahead, and the size of this rally, though huge, is not unmatched.
Inflation should come down.
To reach the sustainable rally that will lead to the next bull market, we need to see a continual decrease in inflation. Our company believe we are close to this inflation peak, with product costs falling, supply chains loosening, and the labour market starting to damage. In spite of these signals, we will need to see concrete data that inflation is boiling down, which still might not encourage the Fed that it is time to stop interest rate hikes.
In 2020, ARKK acquired around 148% after purchasing stocks such as Tesla and Square. Ark Invest now controls around 10 different ETFs, providing exposure to various sectors of the market, with the primary focus on tech.
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” After such a strong year in 2020, ARKK has felt the complete impact of the tech sell-off, falling around 12% this year.”.
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We remain optimistic that we may have seen the bearishness reach its bottom however at the same time careful about the present rally being the sustainable recovery that will lead to the next booming market. For that to happen, inflation still requires to come down.