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The first half of 2022 was the worst very first half of the year for the S&P in more than 50 years. But given that the start of the second half of the year, the marketplace has started to rebound. The S&P 500 is up 13% from its June lows, and the NASDAQ is up near 20% from its lows, and near to the hypothetical threshold for a new bull market.
When we see this rally, our primary concern is: are we looking at a brand-new bull market or is this a bearish market rally? Simply put, have we reached the bottom yet and are on our way up, or is the marketplace seeing a little rally before another plunge?
To answer this concern, let’s understand what is driving this rally.
Capitulated financier belief: The ramification is that the marketplace has reached its bottom as the rate has been driven down by investors offering stocks without the hope of restoring their losses. Therefore, the marketplace is ripe for a rally.
Q2 earnings went beyond expectations: Lots of financiers were stressed that as stocks dropped, this slump would also be reflected in their profits report. Nevertheless, the reports were not almost as bad as lots of feared.
Investors are hoping for an inflation decrease and an end to the Fed hiking rate of interest by the end of the year.
As the marketplace rallies, the United States Federal Reserve is worried that this is taking place too soon, before the necessary economic goals have been accomplished.
Is this the one?
Bear rallies occur typically, and this has certainly been a big one. Compared to the three previous significant crashes in 2007, 2000, and 1973, 2 things stand out:.
The a great deal of bear rallies which typically occur before the one that is sustainable shows up and starts the next booming market. We are currently in the 4th rally, and some healings have needed 11.
The plus size of this 13% rally versus the 8% average bearish market rally. History suggests that we may have more false dawns ahead, and the size of this rally, though huge, is not extraordinary.
Inflation needs to come down.
To reach the sustainable rally that will result in the next booming market, we need to see a sustained decline in inflation. We believe we are close to this inflation peak, with product rates falling, supply chains loosening up, and the labour market beginning to compromise. Despite these signals, we will require to see concrete information that inflation is boiling down, which still may not persuade the Fed that it is time to stop rates of interest hikes.
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We stay optimistic that we may have seen the bearish market reach its bottom but at the same time cautious about the current rally being the sustainable recovery that will result in the next booming market. For that to happen, inflation still needs to come down.