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The first half of 2022 was the worst first half of the year for the S&P in more than 50 years. Considering that the beginning of the 2nd half of the year, the market has started to rebound. The S&P 500 is up 13% from its June lows, and the NASDAQ is up near 20% from its lows, and near the theoretical threshold for a new bull market.
When we see this rally, our main concern is: are we taking a look at a brand-new booming market or is this a bearish market rally? To put it simply, have we reached the bottom yet and are on our method up, or is the market seeing a small rally before another plunge?
To answer this question, let’s understand what is driving this rally.
Capitulated financier sentiment: The ramification is that the market has actually reached its bottom as the cost has actually been driven down by financiers offering stocks without the hope of regaining their losses. Hence, the marketplace is ripe for a rally.
Q2 revenues exceeded expectations: Lots of financiers were worried that as stocks dropped, this slump would also be reflected in their revenues report. However, the reports were not nearly as bad as many feared.
Financiers are expecting an inflation decline and an end to the Fed hiking interest rates by the end of the year.
As the marketplace rallies, the United States Federal Reserve is concerned that this is happening too soon, prior to the essential economic objectives have actually been attained.
Is this the one?
Bear rallies occur frequently, and this has indeed been a huge one. Compared to the three previous major crashes in 2007, 2000, and 1973, 2 things stand out:.
The large number of bear rallies which typically take place prior to the one that is sustainable shows up and begins the next bull market. We are presently in the 4th rally, and some recoveries have needed 11.
The plus size of this 13% rally versus the 8% average bear market rally. History indicates that we may have more false dawns ahead, and the size of this rally, though huge, is not unmatched.
Inflation should come down.
To reach the sustainable rally that will cause the next bull market, we need to see a continual decrease in inflation. We believe we are close to this inflation peak, with product rates falling, supply chains loosening up, and the labour market starting to weaken. In spite of these signals, we will need to see concrete data that inflation is boiling down, which still may not convince the Fed that it is time to halt interest rate hikes.
The main ETF to mention here is ARKK. It sprung into the limelight in 2020, with its disruptive financial investments managed by Cathie Wood. In 2020, ARKK acquired around 148% after buying stocks such as Tesla and Square. Ark Invest now manages around 10 different ETFs, providing exposure to numerous sectors of the marketplace, with the main concentrate on tech.
” ARKK (ARK Development ETF) is heavily weighted towards health care and information technology assets. The ETF offers exposure to a variety of sectors, permitting you to increase the diversity of your portfolio.
” After such a strong year in 2020, ARKK has felt the complete effect of the tech sell-off, falling around 12% this year.”.
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We remain positive that we might have seen the bearish market reach its bottom however at the same time careful about the present rally being the sustainable healing that will result in the next booming market. For that to occur, inflation still needs to come down.