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The first half of 2022 was the worst first half of the year for the S&P in more than 50 years. But considering that the start of the second half of the year, the market has actually begun to rebound. The S&P 500 is up 13% from its June lows, and the NASDAQ is up near 20% from its lows, and close to the hypothetical limit for a brand-new booming market.
When we see this rally, our main concern is: are we looking at a new bull market or is this a bearish market rally? In other words, have we reached the bottom yet and are on our way up, or is the market seeing a little rally prior to another plunge?
To address this concern, let’s understand what is driving this rally.
Capitulated financier belief: The implication is that the market has actually reached its bottom as the cost has been driven down by financiers offering stocks without the hope of regaining their losses. Thus, the marketplace is ripe for a rally.
Q2 profits exceeded expectations: Lots of investors were stressed that as stocks plummeted, this decline would also be reflected in their earnings report. However, the reports were not almost as bad as numerous feared.
Investors are hoping for an inflation decline and an end to the Fed treking rate of interest by the end of the year.
As the market rallies, the United States Federal Reserve is worried that this is taking place too soon, before the needed financial objectives have actually been accomplished.
Is this the one?
Bear rallies occur often, and this has indeed been a big one. Compared to the 3 previous significant crashes in 2007, 2000, and 1973, 2 things stand out:.
The large number of bear rallies which generally happen prior to the one that is sustainable gets here and begins the next bull market. We are presently in the 4th rally, and some healings have needed 11.
The large size of this 13% rally versus the 8% average bear market rally. History suggests that we may have more false dawns ahead, and the size of this rally, however huge, is not extraordinary.
Inflation must boil down.
To reach the sustainable rally that will cause the next bull market, we require to see a sustained decrease in inflation. Our company believe we are close to this inflation peak, with product prices falling, supply chains loosening, and the labour market beginning to damage. Despite these signals, we will require to see concrete data that inflation is coming down, which still may not encourage the Fed that it is time to stop interest rate walkings.
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” After such a strong year in 2020, ARKK has felt the complete effect of the tech sell-off, falling around 12% this year.”.
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We stay optimistic that we might have seen the bearishness reach its bottom but at the same time careful about the present rally being the sustainable recovery that will lead to the next bull market. For that to occur, inflation still needs to come down.