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The very first half of 2022 was the worst first half of the year for the S&P in more than 50 years. Because the beginning of the second half of the year, the market has begun to rebound. The S&P 500 is up 13% from its June lows, and the NASDAQ is up near 20% from its lows, and close to the theoretical limit for a brand-new bull market.
When we see this rally, our main concern is: are we looking at a new bull market or is this a bearish market rally? In other words, have we reached the bottom yet and are on our way up, or is the marketplace seeing a small rally prior to another plunge?
To address this concern, let’s understand what is driving this rally.
Capitulated investor sentiment: The implication is that the marketplace has actually reached its bottom as the price has been driven down by financiers offering stocks without the hope of restoring their losses. Thus, the marketplace is ripe for a rally.
Q2 revenues exceeded expectations: Many financiers were stressed that as stocks plummeted, this recession would also be shown in their revenues report. The reports were not nearly as bad as many feared.
Financiers are wishing for an inflation decline and an end to the Fed treking interest rates by the end of the year.
As the market rallies, the United States Federal Reserve is concerned that this is occurring too soon, prior to the necessary financial objectives have been achieved.
Is this the one?
Bear rallies occur typically, and this has indeed been a big one. Compared to the 3 previous major crashes in 2007, 2000, and 1973, two things stand apart:.
The large number of bear rallies which generally occur prior to the one that is sustainable shows up and starts the next booming market. We are currently in the fourth rally, and some recoveries have needed 11.
The large size of this 13% rally versus the 8% typical bearish market rally. History indicates that we may have more incorrect dawns ahead, and the size of this rally, though big, is not extraordinary.
Inflation must come down.
To reach the sustainable rally that will result in the next booming market, we need to see a sustained decrease in inflation. We believe we are close to this inflation peak, with commodity rates falling, supply chains loosening, and the labour market starting to deteriorate. Regardless of these signals, we will need to see concrete information that inflation is coming down, which still may not persuade the Fed that it is time to halt rate of interest hikes.
In 2020, ARKK got around 148% after purchasing stocks such as Tesla and Square. Ark Invest now manages approximately ten different ETFs, offering exposure to various sectors of the market, with the main focus on tech.
” ARKK (ARK Innovation ETF) is heavily weighted towards healthcare and infotech assets. The ETF uses direct exposure to a range of sectors, allowing you to increase the diversity of your portfolio.
” After such a strong year in 2020, ARKK has felt the full impact of the tech sell-off, falling around 12% this year.”.
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We remain positive that we might have seen the bear market reach its bottom but at the same time careful about the present rally being the sustainable healing that will cause the next bull market. For that to take place, inflation still needs to come down.